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There is a good deal of cash to be won this week DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the primary tournament. I will be going thicker than normal this week following the big GPP prizes, and I will play less cash games than normal. Here is the first time we have observed a 30k top prize so I think it’s worth chasing if you’ve got the bankroll to get it.
We did lose the co-main event with Max Holloway pulling out of this struggle against Brian Ortega, so we’re down to 11 battles and we should see a lot of ties with this card together with the more popular lineups. If you’re chasing that $30K then you will want to attempt to be a bit different with your lineup so you can distinguish yourself from the remainder of the area. With that said, let us get into a few plays I enjoy as well as my fade of the week.
Money Game play of the week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing with this fight is far off from the gambling line. On DK, Felder is $1,400 less than his opponent, Mike Perry. On the betting line, Felder is your -150 favorite. That is just too much line value to pass on in cash games which makes Felder that the”free square” this week. Even when he loses this fight, he should be so highly owned that it will not even hurt your lineup in cash games. In GPP’s, Felder will be one of the highest owned fighters on the card and if he loses there then it could kill your lineup, so maybe consider avoiding the chalk there in the event that you can. However, with this crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy choice for the money game play of this week.
GPP play of this week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this seems a bit weird since I just chose Paul Felder because my money play of this week, but hear me out. In cash games, we do not care about ownership. In case Felder is 90% owned in money games, then it will not damage your lineup because only 10% of lineups didn’t have him and you only have to be top ~50 percent of the area to money in money games. In GPPs, I’m imagining Felder will probably be over 50% possessed. If he loses, that is half of the area that’s dead without a shot at winning 1st location.
Mike Perry on the other hand will probably be less than 20% owned, and maybe closer to 10% just because of the mispriced line. If Felder kills and loses off 50% of lineups, then you get a win with the low owned man to put you in a far better place of a Royal 1st place win and maybe hitting $30k. Perry has the capability to KO anybody and Paul Felder is carrying this fight on short notice in a weight class above his division. Would it shock you that much if Perry could KO him? In GPPs, we’re looking for that boom or bust drama and that is Mike Perry this week making him my GPP play of the week.
Underdog play of this week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis could have been a -500 favored over Michael Chiesa if this struggle happened 5 years ago, but now we get a fading Pettis as an underdog and $1,000 less costly than Chiesa on DraftKings. I think Pettis can keep this fight standing for many the fight and that will give him a huge edge. He’s also dangerous on the ground himself and if he is taken down I think he is going to be able to get back up if he is not able to get a entry of his own. If Pettis can win a decision then I presume he will pay his off DK cost and is going to be a fantastic underdog to utilize so you can conserve salary in your lineups. I can even find this fight ending early from Pettis dropping Chiesa with a human body kick and if this happens he will likely be on the winning lineup if he could make it happen in round 1.
Fade of this week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I really do think he wins the fight, but I do not see him paying that high price tag. He does not fight at a hefty rate and he has not gotten a takedown in his last 4 wins as well as the ground is where he’ll have his main advantage in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao hasn’t scored over 78 DK points and at his wages this week I want at least 91 points out of him to pay that much. I’d rather cover the guys higher priced compared to Assuncao, or even go down to Vannata or even Miocic. I’ll have at least 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will probably be in 0 of these, making him my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
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